Munis, When the Imperfect Happens

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<h3>James A. Klotz</h3>

James A. Klotz

With equities priced beyond “perfection,” is it any wonder investors are streaming into municipal bonds, preparing for when markets remind us that nothing stays perfect forever?

Early this year, Goldman Sachs warned that stocks were “priced for perfection.” In other words, equity prices already assumed everything would go right: Steady growth, strong earnings and no surprises. Valuations, the firm warned in January, offered “little cushion for equity markets” if things didn’t proceed ideally.

Now, valuations are even higher, especially by historical standards, suggesting that today’s markets are, if anything, even more perfectly – and precariously – priced.

At a time when stocks demand perfection just to perform, municipal bonds continue to reward the unremarkable.

Munis, when the imperfect happens

Investors seek munis for stability and yield

Stock valuations and investor behavior have grown increasingly disconnected. Prices have been rising even as fundamentals show signs of fatigue. The International Monetary Fund recently warned that U.S. equity valuations are higher than they have been 96% of the time since 1990, a condition that could precede a market pullback.

The imbalance is striking: The 10 largest companies in the S&P 500 now account for nearly 39% of the index, the highest concentration on record, and a level that amplifies vulnerability should sentiment toward those few leaders shift.

For many investors, that imbalance has investors questioning how long the momentum can last and reinforces the appeal of municipal bonds.

In a recent commentary, Hilltop Securities made the case for “asset preservation.”

“Some financial experts are signaling caution,” the firm said. “Valuations and prices of various assets have far surpassed or are approaching peak levels, with some observers warning they may be overstretched.”

“For investors, especially those nearing or in retirement, protecting and preserving assets is no longer optional; it is essential.”

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    The firm noted muni mutual-fund inflows of more than $9 billion since late August, underscoring what it calls the “October Municipal ‘Moment’.”

    Solid credit, rate cuts reinforce muni momentum

    Meanwhile, reports indicate municipal credit fundamentals remain solid (“Why Muni Investors Cheer Strong Balance Sheets”). According to Nuveen, most state and local governments ended the fiscal year with surpluses, aided by improved revenues and disciplined budgeting, while debt and pension obligations have generally eased.

    With the Federal Reserve recently cutting rates for the second consecutive meeting, the window for locking in today’s higher tax-exempt yields may be narrowing. In a recent report, Morningstar highlighted that shift, noting that “after a slow start to 2025, long-term municipal bonds are rebounding” (prices are rising, yields are easing) as investors recognize their relative value.

    Morningstar attributed the renewed momentum to high absolute yields and improved valuations following volatility earlier in the year.

    The message for investors looking for stability over speculation is clear: With equity markets still priced for perfection and the Fed easing rates, municipal yields are gradually trending lower.

    Yet even if that adjustment unfolds slowly, high-quality municipals continue to provide what they always have: a prudent way to preserve wealth, generate a dependable, steady stream of tax-exempt income and maintain balance in an increasingly uncertain market.

    James A. Klotz

    President

    James A. Klotz is the President of FMSbonds, Inc.
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    Oct 30, 2025